Vancouver Island labour shortage by 2014 says report

With the effects of the financial crisis subsiding, Vancouver Island could be facing a labour shortage in four years, a government report suggests. A labour-market outlook for 2009 to 2019 released last week by Work B.C. -- affiliated with the Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development -- predicts a shortage of 1,710 workers in the Vancouver Island-Sunshine Coast region by 2014. The shortage is expected to worsen each year, reaching a deficit of 7,860 workers by 2019. "Widespread tight labour-market conditions, with labour demand exceeding labour supply, are expected to re-emerge in the next five years for the Vancouver Island/Coast [region]," the report says. The paper doesn't break down the job market by cities, but Lisa Tees, spokeswoman for the Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, noted that Victoria is home to nearly half of all jobs in the region, and will thus have a strong influence on the results.

For the Island and coastal region, the fastest-growing areas are expected to be masonry and plastering; medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine; and nursing -- with labour demand in those fields expected to grow at more than four per cent each year. The shortage could hit Victoria even sooner than the report suggests, said Bruce Carter, chief executive officer of the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce. "We're seeing significant increases in employment in Victoria anecdotally," said Carter. "I think the labour market, from an employer perspective, will start to look tight in 2011 or 2012." Almost 70 per cent of the job openings provincewide will require some education beyond high school, the report predicts. "That might make it more difficult to attract folks, and finding suitable candidates can make the labour shortage even more difficult," said University of Victoria labour economist Herbert Schuetze. A labour shortage would likely cause wages to rise and more people to move to the region, he added. "There are going to be some pressures," said Schuetze. "It could be higher wages, it could be net in-migration or it could be that older people move away from here when they realize it's more expensive to get labour and pay for things here." For the Island/coastal region, no sectors are expected to have excess labour beyond 2014.

Just three types of jobs in the region -- mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries; fishing and trapping occupations; and assembly and fabrication supervisors -- are expected to have a perfect balance, with no labour shortages in the job market after 2014. Carter said the shortages will be across the board. "The workforce is getting older, we've got a bunch of people retiring," he said. "Labourers are going to look for jobs that have good terms of employment, good strong pay and great work environments, and employers are going to need to create those environments in order to retain workers. I'm not sure it really matters what sector you're in." The report predicts there will be 208,000 job openings in the Vancouver Island/Coast region between 2009 and 2019. Provincewide, roughly 60 per cent of the openings are expected to come from workers retiring or dying, and 40 per cent are expected to come from economic growth. With a shortage looming, it may be a good time for businesses to start hiring. "I was telling some employers to view [the financial crisis] as an opportunity to hire," said Schuetze. "If you can do it during the downturn, it's a great time because we are going to return to a point in time -- not unlike a couple years ago -- where firms are finding it really difficult to attract workers."

Any labour shortage will likely only get worse after 2019 because of an aging population, predicted Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Central 1 Credit Union. "I would think that we would see labour-supply shortages or issues emerge later this decade and into the next decade," said Pastrick. "In 2020 and beyond, it will only become even more pronounced. I think that's what we will see in not just B.C. but Canada and other countries ... where we've had a birth rate over the past two or more decades below replacement levels." In other parts of the province, the employment picture painted by the government report is less rosy, with more people expected to be looking for work than there are employers wanting to hire. Although the gap between labour supply and demand is expected to shrink each year, there is expected to be thousands more people looking for work provincewide than there are jobs available for the foreseeable future. dkarp@tc.canwest.com © Copyright (c) The Victoria Times Colonist

Provincial study predicts tighter job market BY DAVID KARP, TIMES COLONIST JUNE 9, 2010